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111.
次贷阴影下的中国金融危机 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
鲁春义 《湖南财经高等专科学校学报》2008,24(3):77-79
美国次贷危机给全球经济蒙上一层阴影。通过对中国房地产市场的客观分析以及与美国次贷危机的比较,指出货币信贷政策紧缩和政府房地产政策调整可能引发房地产泡沫的破灭。由于中国房地产业高度依赖银行贷款,房地产价格大幅下跌将导致银行呆坏账大量增加,危及中国金融体系的稳定,甚至引发全面的金融危机。长期来看需要建立全社会个人信用制度,加强相关部门制度建设,深化土地制度改革,建立健全住房保障制度。 相似文献
112.
压裂支撑剂是石油、天然气工业水力压裂作业重要的专用材料,做好压裂支撑剂检验工作对油气田生产具有重要意义。压裂支撑剂检验的8项指标中,破碎率和酸溶解度最易超标,是生产厂家及检验单位最为关注的2项指标。针对该2项指标与工程院进行了比对分析,提出了质控建议。 相似文献
113.
We investigate the association between venture capital (VC) backing and the likelihood of firm overvaluation in the high‐tech bubble period. We find strong evidence that a VC‐backed firm is more likely than a non‐VC‐backed firm to be overvalued during the bubble period. A further investigation suggests that such an association exists only for VC‐backed firms that have gone public recently and VC‐backed firms over which venture capitalists (VCs) have high ownership or control. But outside the bubble period, all the differences in overvaluation between VC‐backed and non‐VC‐backed firms disappear. Our findings provide additional evidence supporting VC opportunism in boom periods. 相似文献
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为防止房地产市场的过度泡沫化,国家出台了一系列房地产调控政策。但这些调控政策能否有效降低房价并抑制房地产泡沫呢?以往房地产泡沫的研究表明,投资者预期对房地产价格波动和房地产泡沫的影响极为重要。经典的噪声交易模型也指出,噪声交易者预期是房地产价格波动和房地产泡沫形成的重要因素。在系统回顾文献的基础上,文章分析了噪声交易者预期对于房地产价格泡沫的影响,并剖析了房地产调控政策对噪声预期和房价关系的调节作用,从而构建了相应的调节作用模型。在此基础上,使用35个大中城市2002-2011年的实际数据进行了调节作用模型的实证检验。实证结果显示,近年来国家出台的房地产调控政策在抑制房地产价格异常波动和房地产泡沫问题上收效甚微。 相似文献
117.
本文利用指标修正方法,测度了2000~2010年贵州省各年度的房地产泡沫系数。研究结果表明,以2008年度为分水岭,贵州省房地产市场从发展状况良好逐渐向泡沫趋势演化,金融支持和需求旺盛是造成泡沫显现的重要原因,稳定房价已成为目前贵州省相关政府部门急需迫切解决的一个重要问题。 相似文献
118.
Technical trading rules and linear regression models are often used by practitioners to find trends in asset returns. However, these models typically neglect interaction terms between the lagged daily directional movements. We propose a decision tree forecasting model that has the flexibility to capture arbitrary interaction patterns. To study the importance of interaction terms, we construct a binary Markov process with a deterministic component that cannot be predicted without interaction terms between the lagged directional movements. We show that some tree based strategies achieve trading performance significant at the 99% confidence level on the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, after adjusting for multiple testing. The best strategy breaks even with the buy-and-hold strategy at 21 bps in transaction costs per round trip. A four-factor regression analysis shows significant intercept, and correlation with the market. The directional predictability is strongest during the bursts of the dotcom bubble, financial crisis, and European debt crisis. The return sign predictability during these periods confirms the necessity of interaction terms to model daily returns. 相似文献
119.
This paper tests whether the Fisher hypothesis holds for a sample of 26 countries by assessing the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates taking into consideration the short run dynamics of interest rates. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a one-to-one relationship between the interest rate and inflation for more than half of the countries under study. 相似文献
120.
W. Erwin Diewert Alice O. Nakamura Leonard I. Nakamura 《Journal of Housing Economics》2009,18(3):156-171
Over the course of the recent house price bubble in the United States, the price of homes rose rapidly from 1999 Q4 to 2005 Q4 (11.3% annually as measured by the Case-Shiller index, and 8.4% annually as measured by the Federal Housing Financing Agency) but slowly as measured by owner equivalent rents (3.4%), so measured core inflation remained relatively docile during this period, since only rents are used to measure inflation for housing services in the United States. Over the last several decades, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has experimented with both rental equivalence and user cost approaches for accounting for owner occupied housing (OOH) services in the CPI. We explain the basics of these approaches, and outline the BLS experiences with using them. This assessment leads us to conclude that the time has come to try a new approach: the opportunity cost approach. We argue this approach has advantages over both the conventional rental equivalence and user cost approaches, though it embeds components of the measures for both those approaches and builds solidly on the research of Verbrugge and others at the BLS. Also, we take up empirical issues that must be faced regardless of which of the approaches discussed is adopted. We explain how the repeat-sales and various hedonic regression methods can be placed in a common framework, thereby facilitating understanding of the properties of and the tradeoffs between the methods. We also consider measurement complications that arise because the land and structure components of properties depreciate at different rates. 相似文献